Iranian Bets on Saudi Mediation with Washington

The Saudi silence regarding the content of the message sent by Iranian President Masoud Bezhakian to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the eve of his visit to the United States and the summit he held with President Donald Trump was met with Iranian insistence on the official narrative that the Foreign Ministry maintained, asserting that the message pertains to the issue of Iranian pilgrims and thanking Riyadh for the role it played in repatriating the pilgrims coinciding with the Israeli attack on Iran. However, the first question that arises regarding the Iranian official narrative is whether the presidency needed all this time to remember the Saudi role in transporting Iranians during the war to thank them for it, knowing that the Iranian state had previously expressed such gratitude in due time.

The second question is whether the agreement or understanding regarding cooperation between the two countries, which was previously reached and signed by both parties after the resumption of relations between them as one of the outcomes of the Beijing agreement in March 2023, requires such a message at this timing? While the natural context for such understandings is that they should be addressed within the frameworks specified by the agreement and through the joint committee on pilgrimage issues from both countries.

These questions and inquiries regarding the timing of the message open the door for a different reading of the content of the Iranian message to the Saudi leadership, suggesting that it carries intentions not related to the issue of pilgrimage and expressing gratitude for a natural role that the Kingdom plays in overseeing the pilgrimage rituals.

As for Tehran's attempt to divert to a subsidiary issue in its relationship with Saudi Arabia and refrain from explicitly acknowledging its desire for an active role for Riyadh in its crisis with the United States, this does not align with the signals that came from the Saudi Crown Prince during his meeting with Trump regarding the Iranian nuclear file crisis and the Kingdom's clear position on the necessity of reaching solutions far from the military option, which would negatively impact the stability of the region and open the door to political, economic, and security repercussions that no party desires, especially since it could lead to a regression in the developmental and economic trajectory. This position comes from the fact that the Saudi leadership does not hesitate to facilitate any efforts that lead to an agreement between the two parties that ends the state of tension in the Middle East.

Based on the dimensions of Saudi concern regarding the repercussions of the military option, it is not possible to speak here about the role of a direct or alternative mediator that Riyadh seeks to play in this crisis. However, on the other hand, one cannot rule out the possibility that the Crown Prince's signals regarding the nuclear issue and its inclusion on the agenda of his visit, which is full of strategic and economic interests with Trump, did not come from a vacuum or without Riyadh sensing a serious Iranian desire to break this existing stalemate in its dialogue with Washington. Thus, Tehran's bet on a Saudi role in finding an exit that reactivates negotiation paths allowing for reaching common points and clear, defined results.

Tehran may not bet on a direct role for Riyadh in this context, meaning that it would be the negotiating mediator with the American side, but rather that Riyadh helps facilitate the process of bridging the viewpoints between the two parties and softening the sharp angles of their positions, starting from easing the preconditions that each side insists on.

Tehran seeks to invest in the Saudi position supporting negotiations and reaching clear solutions in the nuclear crisis because the Iranian leadership has become clearly aware that any agreement or understanding between it and Washington that does not take into account Saudi interests in the region will be difficult and will not help in reintegrating Iran into its surroundings or contribute to enhancing trust in it and its ambitions in the region, given the threat it poses to the security, stability, and sovereignty of its countries, similar to what happened in the 2015 agreement with the Obama administration, which took from Iran an understanding on the nuclear issue and left the door open for it to expand its influence and role at the expense of the interests of the countries in the region.

In light of the absence of clear guarantees for the success of the Saudi mediation role from both sides, it is expected that Riyadh will adopt a middle path that does not burden it with political or economic burdens in case both parties fail to agree on common points, ensuring that it maintains its role as a central and pivotal player in the region and on the international stage that no one can overlook or disregard its interests and concerns.