Does the Assassination of Al-Tabtabai Represent a Shift in the Rules of Engagement in Lebanon?

Beirut - In a development that reflects a significant shift in the course of confrontation, targeted attacks have returned to the southern suburbs of Beirut after months of relative calm. An Israeli aircraft carried out a precise strike on a residential building in the Haret Hreik area this Sunday afternoon, targeting Haitham Ali Al-Tabtabai (known as Abu Ali Al-Tabtabai), whom Israel describes as the second man and chief of staff in Hezbollah.

The strike comes amid a rapidly escalating situation in recent days, during which the Israeli army has executed a series of strikes in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, before expanding operations today to reach deep into the southern suburbs, which is considered the most prominent stronghold of the party and its security and political center.

In a final tally, the Lebanese Ministry of Health announced the martyrdom of 5 individuals and injuries to 28 others due to the fall of guided missiles on a residential building on Haret Hreik Street, one of the most densely populated and vibrant areas within the suburbs.

For its part, Lebanese security sources confirmed to Al Jazeera that the strike resulted in the martyrdom of Al-Tabtabai, who was effectively holding the top military position within the party's organizational hierarchy, succeeding Fouad Shukr, who was also assassinated by Israel last summer in 2024.

Analysts believe that the strike carries significant military and political implications and may represent a turning point in the rules of engagement on the Lebanese scene, as targeting Al-Tabtabai indicates that Israel has moved to a higher level of escalation.

The recent targeting operation recalls that of military leader Fouad Shukr, after which a series of targeting operations continued against prominent leaders in the party, including Ibrahim Aqil, culminating in the assassination of Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.

This targeting brings the southern suburbs back to the heart of the military equation, after remaining outside the scope of strikes that focused on the south and Bekaa in recent months, despite being the scene of a wave of intense shelling during what Hezbollah calls the "Support War," which began on October 8, 2023, and continued until the ceasefire in Lebanon on November 27, 2024.

On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu renewed his commitment today to continue targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, asserting that his government "will do whatever is necessary to prevent the re-establishment of their military capabilities," adding that "the Israeli army carried out precise strikes this week in Lebanon and will continue to operate without hesitation."

For his part, Hezbollah political council member Mahmoud Qamati confirmed to Al Jazeera that "the occupation targeted a jihadist figure in Beirut," adding, "We do not comment on what the enemy says regarding the response, and the resistance leadership is studying the matter and will make a decision."

Military expert Hassan Jouni stated in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, "We are facing an advanced step in the context of the occupation army's strategy towards Hezbollah, whether it is an assassination operation or an attempted targeting in the southern suburbs," and he believes that the precision of the operation and the nature of the target indicate Israel's transition to a higher level of military escalation.

He adds that "the course of events is escalating day by day, and week by week, towards expanding the scope of military operations against Hezbollah within Lebanese territory," and it is clear, in his opinion, that "the occupation army is pursuing a policy aimed at provoking the party and pushing it to a calculated response, in preparation for executing a pre-prepared plan believed to involve using its maximum destructive capabilities, and perhaps employing new and surprising methods."

The military expert states, "Ultimately, it seems that Israel's strategic goal is to capitalize on the critical moment that Lebanon is going through, as a state, institutions, and political forces, in order to attempt to achieve its larger goal; which is to deliver a crippling blow to Hezbollah's military wing and reduce its capabilities in any upcoming confrontation."

Writer and political analyst Ali Haidar confirms to Al Jazeera Net that Israel's efforts to assassinate leaders in Hezbollah are not new but rather a fixed part of its strategy. However, their execution remains contingent on two main factors:

According to Haidar, this comes within a plan aimed at preventing Hezbollah from rebuilding its military capabilities and pressuring it to retreat from its constants related to resistance and its strategic choices, in addition to this path being linked to the American position.

He adds that "this level of aggression, which carried a notable geographical dimension by being executed within the southern suburbs using direct military force and without any warning, cannot occur without American approval controlling the rhythm of these operations, which bet on achieving goals that serve Israeli calculations on one hand and the American plan in Lebanon on the other."

In Haidar's view, the targeting operation indicates a qualitative escalation in the nature of these aggressions, whether in terms of the location of the operation or the level of the targeted leadership figure, following the collapse of a series of bets that Israel relied on, such as its failure to dismantle the popular support around the resistance or to disrupt the party's continued refusal of American and Israeli dictates, and its ability to recover quickly and regain its position in the equations of Lebanese internal affairs and the conflict with Israel.

He adds that "the scenario is fundamentally linked to Hezbollah's position; if the response is direct and qualitative, matters may slip towards a broad confrontation. However, if the party chooses a policy of restraint and avoids war, we will be faced with a continuation of this pattern of aggressions," considering that "so far, there are no indications of a change in the party's strategy, but the nature of major conflicts and upheavals remains open to uncalculated surprises."

As for the Lebanese state, Haidar emphasizes that its primary responsibility remains to protect citizens and maintain sovereignty and land, "and although it is unable to respond militarily at the same level, it is capable of adopting a more effective political and diplomatic performance, but this requires political will that is not available among many officials," he says.

He adds that "the state's performance does not rise to the level of challenges, as it is noted that internal and external movements are accelerating in certain internal files, while dealing with Israeli aggressions remains below the minimum required."

Political analyst Youssef Diab tells Al Jazeera Net that Israel's return to the policy of assassinations indicates a new phase of targeting with the targeting of first-line leaders in Hezbollah, and that "the assassination of the party's first military leader opens the door later for targeting political leaders, which is a dangerous indicator."

Diab adds that "these movements pave the way for a potential escalation - which may begin within hours - and may coincide with or contradict the anticipated visit of the Pope to Beirut, and if Hezbollah responds, matters may develop quickly before the visit, possibly leading to its cancellation, despite hopes that this does not happen."

He points out that the Lebanese state has not been able to move practically and has only intensified international and Arab communications, especially with the United States, in an attempt to curb the aggressions.

As for the negative indicator - according to Diab - it is that Israel announced coordination of the operation with the Americans, reflecting a green light to expand the targeting.

Diab considers that the confrontation so far has been one-sided, "but it may escalate due to Lebanon's inability to control the weapon, and Israel's response to Hezbollah's attempts to develop its military capabilities, and perhaps to carry out surprise operations against Israel," he says.