Analysts: The Assassination of Al-Tabtabai Reveals Israel's Strategy and Tests Hezbollah's Response

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Israel's targeting of the highest military figure in Hezbollah, Haitham Al-Tabtabai, carries messages that go beyond the operational dimension, forming a new link in an escalating path that Tel Aviv sees as an "opportunity to establish new rules of engagement."

According to experts revealed in the program "Beyond the News," the strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Sunday afternoon comes as part of a clear Israeli strategy aimed at weakening Hezbollah's military structure and opening the door to a long path of political and security pressures on both the Lebanese state and the party.

From his perspective, Israeli affairs expert Mohannad Mustafa viewed the targeting of Al-Tabtabai as an "urgent target," but it falls within the context of a cumulative escalation policy adopted by Israel towards Lebanon, citing a series of strikes carried out in recent weeks.

A Lebanese security source informed Al Jazeera of the assassination of Hezbollah's military commander Haitham Al-Tabtabai in the Israeli raid on the suburbs, which resulted in the death of 5 people and the injury of 28 others, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health.

Mustafa confirms that Tel Aviv has come to the conclusion that disarming Hezbollah through traditional means has become impossible, prompting it to adopt an approach based on "making it pay a heavy price for retaining its weapons."

Israel operates from a firm doctrine that it "does not want any strong party to remain on its fronts," and therefore it continues a policy that does not take into account any potential agreement with Lebanon "unless it includes dismantling the military structure of the party."

Mustafa believes that the lack of Lebanese response gives Israel an "ideal situation" that allows it to continue escalation without direct cost, emphasizing that this strategy will be adopted regardless of the next Israeli government.

In the same context, Lebanese writer and journalist Nicolas Nassif considers that the operation carries a "different message," as it targets for the first time in months the depth of the southern suburbs.

According to Nassif, the strike reflects Israel's possession of a "new target bank," contrary to the belief that it lacks information about the "new generation" that has taken over the leadership of the party after the losses it suffered during the last war.

He also sees that Israel has raised the level of its operations from targeting small leaders to the top of the military hierarchy, confirming that it is now pursuing the "new security minds" through which the party is being rebuilt.

However, Nassif questioned at the same time whether Israel is seeking to lure Hezbollah into responding, paving the way for expanding its strikes and not limiting them to the south of the Litani River.

Former U.S. State Department official Thomas Warik confirms that Washington was informed of the strike without being told the identity of the target, noting that Al-Tabtabai is classified as a terrorist by the U.S.

According to Warik, Israel will not allow its citizens in the north to be threatened amid Hezbollah's efforts to rebuild itself and its military capabilities.

He pointed out that the United States wants "actions" from the Lebanese army to implement the ceasefire resolution, and it does not consider the disarmament mission to be completed yet, concluding that Washington understands that Israel "will act if the Lebanese state does not take tangible steps."

Since October of last year, the Israeli occupation army has intensified its attacks on Lebanon, amid ongoing media leaks about plans to launch a new attack on it.

Since signing the last ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah on November 27, 2024, Israel has been violating the agreement daily, resulting in hundreds of casualties and injuries.