Is Hezbollah's Patience Running Out? Targeting Its Chief of Staff Raises Questions About Potential Response

Following the Israeli airstrike that targeted Hezbollah's Chief of Staff Haitham Tabatabai in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanese citizens are asking: Has Hezbollah's patience run out after this escalation that brings Lebanon back to a war-like atmosphere and puts the strategic patience equation to the test?

Israel carried out an airstrike targeting a residential apartment in Haret Hreik in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Sunday afternoon, in an operation that Lebanese security sources confirmed was aimed at Tabatabai, the top military official in Hezbollah. A strong explosion shook the area following the launch of guided missiles from an Israeli warplane towards the apartment on Raghib Harb Street.

Mazen Ibrahim, the director of Al Jazeera's office in Beirut, reported from a Lebanese security source confirming that the targeting and assassination attempt was indeed aimed at Tabatabai, who held the top military position in Hezbollah's General Staff, a position previously held by Fouad Shukr before his assassination.

In a related context, a senior Hezbollah source confirmed that the Israeli targeting indeed aimed at a high-ranking leader and official in the party, without directly revealing his identity.

However, Lebanese security sources and Hezbollah leadership have not yet disclosed the fate of Tabatabai; did the assassination attempt succeed or fail? Meanwhile, the death toll has risen to 5 killed and about 20 injured, according to sources in the Lebanese Ministry of Health, a preliminary toll that could increase.

The Israeli army announced that it "precisely" targeted a prominent leader in Hezbollah, while Axios reported a senior U.S. official stating that Israel did not inform Washington in advance about the attack and was only notified after it occurred, clarifying that the United States had known for days that Israel was planning to escalate in Lebanon but did not know the timing of the strike.

On the strategic analysis front, Mazen Ibrahim pointed out that the convergence of information from Lebanese sources with Israeli reports indicates that Israel has raised the level of escalation to a new peak.

He confirmed that this targeting, regardless of its outcome, brings the scene back to the phase that witnessed the assassination of Shukr, followed by the targeting of prominent military leaders such as the commander of the Radwan Forces, Ibrahim Aqil, leading up to the assassination of the party's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.

On another note, Ibrahim highlighted the fundamental difference between this targeting and previous Israeli operations in the suburbs during April and June, where Israel used to issue evacuation warnings before bombing specific apartments.

The current operation, however, came directly and without prior warning, making it similar to the pattern of operations carried out during the support war that extended from October 8, 2023, to November 27, 2024.

In terms of potential repercussions, Ibrahim raised the central question that occupies the minds of Lebanese citizens: Has Hezbollah's patience run out? He clarified that the party has exercised a policy of strategic patience during the past phase, refraining from responding to repeated Israeli attacks on its fighters and field officers in southern Lebanon since the ceasefire agreement came into effect on November 27, 2024.

He pointed out that the question now is: Will Hezbollah abandon its policy of patience? Will it launch the first missile? He explained that this missile, regardless of its effectiveness, is considered symbolic, meaning that its mere launch would indicate that Hezbollah is attempting to break the equation established by Israel during the phase following the ceasefire.

Israel imposed an equation that reshaped the concept of Lebanese national sovereignty by allowing itself to use Lebanese airspace to carry out assassinations, whether in southern Lebanon or the Bekaa Valley, and now in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

On the Lebanese political level, the director of Al Jazeera's office noted that Lebanese President Joseph Aoun was clear a few days ago when he opened the door to negotiations and proposed an initiative confirming the Lebanese army's readiness to deploy in southern Lebanon at all points, especially those occupied by Israel.

However, the airstrikes occurred two days ago on a large scale in southern Lebanon, and today Lebanon is moving to a phase similar to the support war with assassinations in the heart of the southern suburbs and an attempted assassination of a top military figure.

He clarified that targeting Hezbollah's Chief of Staff, regardless of the outcome of the targeting, whether the operation failed or succeeded, represents a significant variable, and that targeting the capital, despite the strike being in the southern suburbs, means targeting a single urban unit due to urban overlap, in addition to targeting the top leader in the party.

In the context of field escalation, the Israeli army intensified its strikes on targets in Lebanon over the past week, announcing the bombing of rocket launch platforms and weapons depots belonging to Hezbollah.

Ibrahim concluded by stating that questions remain open, awaiting what the coming hours will reveal. The first question: Will Hezbollah respond? The second: What will the Lebanese state do? The third: Will the "Mechanism Committee"—defined as a framework that brings together Lebanon, Israel, and UNIFIL forces under American-French sponsorship—play a role? And finally: What about regional parties? All these questions have been placed on the table, and doors have been opened for them, hoping that the coming days will witness changes that determine the course of events in Lebanon.