Israel Warns Washington of Iranian Maneuvers That May Be a Cover for an Attack

An Iranian woman stands between the American and Israeli flags during a ceremony held in Tehran as part of the state-supported "Woman of the Year" program (sources).

Israeli officials have warned the U.S. administration that missile maneuvers being conducted by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard may not be merely military exercises but could be a prelude to a surprise attack against Israel, according to informed Israeli and American sources.

This warning came over the weekend amid increasing tension and heightened security sensitivity in Israel.

Israeli sources told Axios that the current intelligence indicates military movements only within Iranian territory, without conclusive evidence of an imminent offensive. However, according to the sources, the Israeli military has become less tolerant of risks compared to previous years, especially after the surprise attack carried out by Hamas on October 7, 2023.

One source noted that Israeli intelligence had raised similar concerns about six weeks ago following the detection of Iranian missile movements, but those warnings were not translated into concrete actions at that time. Another Israeli source said the likelihood of an Iranian attack remains below 50 percent, "but no one is willing to take the risk of considering what is happening as just a passing maneuver."

On the other hand, a U.S. source stated that American intelligence does not yet have clear indicators of an imminent Iranian attack, reflecting a difference in assessment between the Israeli and American sides.

Behind the scenes, sources revealed that Israeli Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir contacted U.S. Central Command Commander Admiral Brad Cooper, informing him of Israel's concern over the Iranian missile maneuvers that began days ago. Zamir considered that some operational movements could be used as cover for a surprise attack, calling for close defensive coordination between U.S. and Israeli forces.

Cooper later visited Tel Aviv, where he held a meeting with Zamir and senior Israeli military leaders to discuss developments. The Israeli military declined to comment officially, and the U.S. Central Command did not issue an immediate response.

According to sources, the greatest danger lies in the possibility of a wide confrontation resulting from mutual miscalculation, with each side believing the other is planning an attack and seeking to preempt it.

In this context, Axios reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump on December 29 in Miami. Israeli sources indicate that Netanyahu intends to discuss Iran's efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile capabilities and the possibility of delivering a new strike against them in 2026.

Israeli assessments also indicate that Iran has begun initial steps to restore its missile arsenal after the recent war but has not yet regained its full previous capabilities. Israeli military intelligence and Mossad view the pace of this recovery as not requiring urgent military action in the coming months, though it may become a more pressing issue later in the year.