Acquiring Mike Burrows is a 'good start' for Astros. What's next?

HOUSTON -- One day before departing Orlando, Dana Brown believed he had formed a foundation. The general manager and his lieutenants spent the Winter Meetings surveying the trade market for starting pitching, sometimes paralyzed by massive prices the Houston Astros could not afford to pay.

Targets still emerged and early frameworks of certain deals were constructed. Brown acknowledged how "cool" it would've been to consummate one during the Winter Meetings, but accentuated the reality of baseball's plodding offseason.

"By the time you get back to your respective cities," Brown said, "that's when you get the deal done."

A frenzied Friday morning left Brown prescient and his pitching staff reinforced, perhaps for the next six seasons. Acquiring Mike Burrows from the Pittsburgh Pirates began to address the Astros' top offseason priority. One team source described it as a "good start," opening the possibility for more additions to a starting rotation still in need of them.

"I'm always in the market for pitching because of 162 games and how tough it is to get through a season," Brown said on Friday afternoon. "If there's an opportunity that makes sense for us, we will definitely pursue more pitching. It's all about pitching, pitching, pitching. We don't feel like we're done for this offseason."

Whether the Astros have the appetite or assets to add another starter is a mystery. They are still searching for a backup catcher, bullpen help and, if Brown has his druthers, will add another left-handed bat to balance an extremely right-handed lineup. All of the objectives must be accomplished with limited financial flexibility and, now, a further depleted farm system.

All three of Brown's pitching additions this winter reinforce that owner Jim Crane is reluctant to cross the luxury tax for a third consecutive season. On Friday, Brown said the Astros "do have the money we need" while adding "we're not going to go out and overpay, but we will be aggressive."

Burrows, Nate Pearson and Ryan Weiss will combine to earn around $4.5 million in 2026, though Weiss' contract contains incentives based on innings pitched.

According to approximations from Cot's Contracts, the Astros are $22 million away from the first luxury tax threshold. The prices for other established free-agent starters would almost force Houston to cross a threshold Crane wants to avoid.

Trades still seem like the most straightforward avenue for Houston to add any additional starting pitching depth. Friday's did not come cheap. Both prospects Houston traded to Tampa Bay, outfielder Jacob Melton and right-hander Anderson Brito, began the season within the top 11 of The Athletic's Astros prospect rankings.

For a pitcher with six seasons of club control, and on a market with robust asking prices, it is a fair exchange. Bear in mind, the Baltimore Orioles on Friday surrendered four prospects and the 33rd overall draft pick for Rays starter Shane Baz, who is under team control for three more seasons, but has a more established major-league track record than Burrows.

The Astros had significant interest in Baz, but as two league sources said on Friday, Houston would've never been able to match the Rays' demands for Baz. Baltimore could because it boasts one of baseball's best and deepest farm systems.

The Astros do not, but it's difficult to view Friday's trade as something that staggers it further. Melton plays center field, where Houston already has a surplus at the major-league level. Fellow prospect Zach Cole earned a 26-man roster spot and playing time over Melton in pivotal September games last season. Cole, like Melton, is a left-handed hitter lauded for his defense.

Brito is a 21-year-old with 103 innings of professional experience. He blossomed in the Arizona Fall League, where he struck out 22 of the 47 batters he faced, but still hasn't pitched above High-A. Houston's elite pitching infrastructure has earned every benefit of the doubt to develop productive pitchers in Brito's absence.

Trading any prospect to Tampa Bay comes with trepidation, so the Astros could come to regret parting with both players. Time must pass before that answer is rendered. But for the purposes of building the 2026 Astros, Friday's deal can be viewed as parting with two somewhat redundant prospects for a pitcher with six years of team control.

"We had some surplus or some depth in both of those positions," Brown said. "We needed to add to our starting rotation and we felt like this was a good time to do it. That definitely played into what our thought process was."

Brown described Burrows as an "upside play" with potential to blossom into a "pillar" of future Astros rotations. According to Brown, the team plans to add a sinker to Burrows' arsenal in hopes of helping him neutralize right-handed hitters. Two years ago, Houston did the same with Hunter Brown, who has since become a bona fide ace.

In the short term, Burrows answers some of the questions surrounding the Astros' 2026 plans. Burrows has more major-league success and, perhaps, sports a higher ceiling than either Ryan Weiss or Nate Pearson, the two low-cost additions who will compete for rotation spots during spring training.

In the minutes after news of Burrows' acquisition became public, one rival executive mused that the 26-year-old right-hander has enough potential to be an "average to slightly above average" major-league starter for "several years." Burrows finished last season with a 109 ERA+ and 1.24 WHIP in 96 major-league innings.

"(He has) plus command on a five-pitch arsenal with a fastball up to 98 (mph)," the executive said of Burrows, who walked 2.9 batters per nine innings and threw 65.5 percent of his pitches for strikes in 23 major-league appearances last season.

"His changeup and 12/6 curveball make him extremely pitchable to lefties. The concern is workload, obviously."

That hangup is what the Astros must address, especially if they are unwilling to pay for a reunion with Framber Valdez or any pitcher of his ilk on the free-agent market. On Friday, Brown said the Astros would be "really excited" to get "160-plus productive innings" out of Burrows.

Burrows threw 128 1/3 innings last season between the majors and Triple-A Indianapolis. He's never thrown more than 95 in any other professional season, though it must be noted that Burrows underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023.

Valdez threw 192 innings last season. Since 2022, the workhorse left-hander has logged 767 2/3 frames. Only San Francisco Giants ace Logan Webb has thrown more innings in that same timeframe.

Nothing during Crane's ownership tenure suggests the Astros will make a realistic effort to retain Valdez, who will command a contract longer and more lucrative than anything Crane has ever authorized. On Friday, Brown only acknowledged the Astros "have had some back and forth" with Valdez and his representatives.

Instead, almost all of the Astros' conversations this winter have centered around trades or creative ways to remain competitive while controlling payroll. Friday's deal should allow Houston to remain engaged in similar discussions, be it by dangling center fielder Jake Meyers in discussions or decongesting a five-man infield without enough at-bats to go around.

"We're not leaving any stone unturned," Brown said. "If someone comes in and they wow us with some type of trade deal, we're open for conversation."