NFL best bets Week 16: Why Tua Tagovailoa's absence is being overvalued

Quinn Ewers is making his first start this week. Did the betting market move too much on that news? Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images

Week 15 of the NFL regular season was another winning one for my NFL Projection Model as our wonderful season keeps chugging along. I'm not sure how this hasn't come crashing down on us yet, but, hey, we are still firing.

I'm not going to speak on the Patriots blowing a 21-0 and 24-7 halftime lead against the Bills last week. The vibes are good and I'm going to keep them that way.

Last week's record: 3-2, +0.95 units

Season record: 40-26, +12.03 units, +16.7% ROI

I have four plays for Week 16 and, honestly, I subjectively like the card. Betting on a quarterback in his first start isn't ideal, but I think that price has gone a bit too far considering the state of the defense that he will be facing. As always shop around for the best price and good luck!

This is painful because I have been banging the drum on how bad the Commanders defense is and considering I bet their over last week, this makes me a little worried. Fortunately, there are some angles that I like for this game to stay under. First, the Eagles defense is awesome and offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil will be out for the Commanders. I don't love that for Marcus Mariota and this Commanders offense. Second, the Eagles' offense has been pretty suspect this season and despite Jalen Hurts finally using his legs last week, I don't think they'll need to be super aggressive to come away with a victory. Give me a nice run-heavy gameplan from both offenses and let's keep that clock rolling.

Shop around for this price, but there is plenty of room. In my opinion, this number moved way too much when it was announced rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers would get the start over Tua Tagovailoa. Tua is a shell of the quarterback that he used to be. His accuracy has really fallen off this past season. If he's not going to be accurate, he doesn't have the arm talent or pocket elusiveness to play the position efficiently. Factor in that coach Mike McDaniel is a smart offensive mind and I think you have one of the better situations for Ewers to be stepping into. Facing a poor Bengals' defense that shouldn't be able to generate a ton of pressure is a good way to start your career.

Worst price to bet: Panthers +3 (-115)

Yes, the Buccaneers are getting healthier and I have upgraded them in my model to reflect this, but I still can't get to this price. Personally, I think Baker Mayfield hasn't quite been the same since his oblique injury this year and I don't think healthy weapons on offense are going to magically fix that. On top of that, I think the Panthers match up quite well against the Bucs. They're so reliant on play-action passing, but the Panthers are one of the best teams at defending that action. On the other side of the ball, the Bucs cannot generate pressure despite blitzing at a top-five rate in the NFL so I think Bryce Young and this Panthers' offense should be quite comfortable.

The injury list is quite long for the Browns this week and that is certainly true on the offensive line. And if you're going to tell me that Sheduer Sanders, a quarterback who is prone to holding the ball and taking sacks, is going to have to drop back and pass with one of the league's worst offensive lines, I'm not sure how points are going to be scored for the Browns. I'm not super interested in laying the points here for the Bills. Their run-heavy approach should slow this game down a bit and for the most part this season, they've been slow out of the gates. So I'll just take the under here and hope we have a similar game script to the Bills and Steelers a few weeks ago. Also note that there might be some weather to impact this number a bit.