Can Europe Disrupt the Course of the Ukrainian Settlement?

While the U.S. administration is moving towards a direct negotiation path with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, Moscow accuses the European Union of trying to put obstacles in the way of the process. Meanwhile, the European role remains limited, constrained by internal bureaucracy and military dependence on Washington, according to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. She believes the real enemy of the European Union is its inability to make decisions, which means—according to her—that any European attempts to disrupt the American settlement will remain partial, with the American initiative ultimately decisive in the crisis outcomes.

The anticipated Russian-American talks in Miami regarding Ukraine indicate a continued shift in Washington’s strategy, moving from a long-term attrition policy to a pragmatic negotiation path aiming to end the conflict in a way that preserves its strategic interests.

Bypassing Bureaucracy

In this context, the choice of unconventional channels such as presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and former President’s advisor Jared Kushner reflects the U.S. administration’s desire to bypass bureaucracy and move directly towards quickly implementable understandings.

The question remains about Europe’s ability to disrupt the American move. However, reality shows that Europe can exert partial influence through delays, political maneuvering, media and diplomatic pressure on Washington, and linking any agreement to its own interests. Yet, it remains incapable of halting the process if the U.S. administration decides to proceed.

Statements from Russian officials confirm this, indicating that the Russian army’s advances on the fronts strengthen Moscow’s negotiating position and reduce Europe’s room to influence the settlement outcomes.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni made notable remarks, pointing out that the "real enemy" of the European Union is not external but rather the inability to make decisions and military dependence on the United States. She stated that Europe is not an independent player capable of disrupting any American move but rather a continent with limited capabilities, governed by internal bureaucracy, militarily dependent on Washington, and technically reliant on China.

No Tools

This reality explains why, despite Europe’s cautionary rhetoric, Brussels lacks the tools to stop the U.S.-Russian negotiations, no matter how strict it is with conditions or political influence.

Nevertheless, it cannot be denied that Europe can exert partial influence through political maneuvering and economic leverage via sanctions and frozen Russian assets, slowing the pace of the settlement and possibly making minor amendments to the economic and political terms of the agreement to mitigate the effects of any settlement it disapproves of.

But this ability is limited, as the factor on the ground—including the Russian army’s advances and the depletion of Ukrainian resources—remains the primary determinant of the balance of power at the table, making any European objection inconclusive.

In summary, despite its symbolic role and international standing, Europe cannot fully disrupt the American move towards a settlement in Ukraine. What it can do is exert partial influence and adapt to the agreement’s outcomes, rather than cancel or control the settlement process. Meloni’s statements clearly reflect this reality, meaning that any settlement resulting from the U.S.-Russian talks will be almost inevitable.