Al-Jumhuriya Headline: US Assurances to Lebanon on Cooperation... Israel Expands Its Demand from Litani to Al-Awwali

On the eve of the second meeting today in Naqoura of the "Mechanism" committee, after it was reinforced with two civilian heads for the Lebanese and Israeli delegations, and following the conclusion of the Paris quadripartite meeting to hold a conference supporting the Lebanese army next February, Lebanon, according to official sources to "Al-Jumhuriya," received US assurances confirming cooperation to find solutions preventing Israel from carrying out its threat of war. Meanwhile, attention today will focus on what Egyptian Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouly, who arrived in Beirut last night as part of the Egyptian initiative, will bring. However, everyone will await the meeting on the 29th of this month between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which is said to be key to exploring the fate of the situation in Lebanon and the region.

Against the backdrop of the US-French-Saudi-Lebanese Paris meeting, during which it was agreed to hold a conference supporting the Lebanese army in February, and amid preparations for today's "Mechanism" meeting, Israel launched a wave of intense airstrikes in the area north of the Litani River extending deep into the Bekaa Valley, under the pretext of targeting Hezbollah military sites. This prompted Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri to describe these attacks as "an Israeli message to the Paris conference dedicated to supporting the Lebanese army, alongside a fiery belt of airstrikes honoring tomorrow's Mechanism meeting."

Israeli Channel 12 reported that "Israel will increase its level of representation in negotiations with Lebanon," noting that Israeli National Security Council Deputy Chairman Yossi Draznin will participate in today's Naqoura meeting. It added: "The Naqoura meeting on Friday (today) will discuss preventing the resumption of war with Lebanon and will address economic cooperation on the border."

The Paris meeting was held at the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs and included US envoy Morgan Ortagus, Saudi envoy Yazid bin Farhan, French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, French President's advisor for North Africa and the Middle East Anne-Claire Logander, and Lebanese Army Commander General Rudolf Heikal.

French Foreign Ministry spokesperson Pascal Confavreux said after the meeting: "We are working to provide the committee with practical means on the ground to verify progress in the disarmament process of Hezbollah." He explained that "the Lebanese army commander presented during the meeting the progress made by his forces in the south of the country, in addition to the army's needs," pointing to "a consensus to document this progress seriously and to work within the framework of a ceasefire monitoring mechanism."

According to Confavreux, the attendees agreed on "the principle of holding an international conference to support the Lebanese army in February, without specifying the location." He announced, "Our goal in Lebanon is to implement the ceasefire agreement, which includes Hezbollah's disarmament." He indicated that "if there is a need to delay the deadline for Hezbollah's disarmament, we will discuss it with the parties to the agreement."

Before the meeting, General Heikal received a warm welcome at the French Armed Forces General Staff headquarters, where he was received by his French counterpart Fabian Mandon, who said: "I discussed with the Lebanese army commander the security challenges in Lebanon and the region. We stand with the Lebanese army to maintain Lebanon's stability and respect for its sovereignty."

Amid these developments, a senior Hezbollah source told "Al-Jumhuriya" that "we are still in the stage of pressures and political maneuvers, and we have become a target for Arab and international envoys with one goal: Hezbollah's weapon, whether to contain it, neutralize its role, or disarm it." The source said: "Containing the weapon means freezing its use clearly and explicitly by extracting certain guarantees promoted by each envoy in his own way, such as those directly proposed by Egyptian Intelligence Director Major General Hassan Rashad or in a covert manner, like making an under-the-table agreement, as we were whispered. The main idea around which everything revolves is that the Israeli side considers its opportunity golden to completely disarm Hezbollah and is working to achieve this goal by all means possible, involving everyone in all frameworks and directions." The source added: "In this reading, the likelihood of war weakens because the American view ultimately is that these pressures allow achieving what Israel wants, and the Lebanese state is making concessions step by step. Therefore, the American sees that continuing to besiege Hezbollah leads to neutralizing the use and effectiveness of the weapon or at least pressuring Hezbollah to make concessions. The American benefits from Israeli stubbornness and its continuation of attacks and non-compliance with the ceasefire agreement. The Trump-Netanyahu meeting is certainly a pivotal meeting and a key indicator of the direction of affairs. They know that war is not guaranteed to succeed in the end and will not lead to Hezbollah's disarmament or withdrawal. This can only be achieved by a ground invasion, which would turn into an endless saga, causing more massacres and destruction without changing the equation. In the end, Lebanon is committed to the ceasefire, the army has deployed south of the river and cleared it of weapons, and now there is a division to geographically expand the disarmament area and move from south of the Litani to the Al-Awwali River."

The source revealed that "a new condition is being marketed to Israel, demanding to expand the area from which it wants to disarm, from south of the Litani northward to Al-Awwali, requesting security guarantees in this geographical area because it believes it has pushed Hezbollah back from 40 km to 70 km, turning it into a safe zone where only the Lebanese army is deployed. This also includes disarmament of the camps, thus, in its view, the conditions of any battle become unequal, imposing new rules of engagement that allow it to easily control all these areas. Hezbollah will not accept this because practically, if the enemy receives this paper, it means it will not withdraw but advance forward, as is happening in Gaza and Syria." The source confirmed that "despite everything that has happened, Hezbollah is not weak, so we will witness more pressures and intimidation campaigns. Surrendering the weapon is out of the question, and the priority is to compel the enemy to implement the agreement."

Notably yesterday, Lebanon's UN envoy Ahmad Arafa warned during a Security Council session of a security vacuum in the south, especially after the withdrawal of UNIFIL forces or during the transitional period between their exit and the deployment of the Lebanese army, as scheduled by the end of next year.

Sources following the official Lebanese position told "Al-Jumhuriya" that "this warning is of utmost importance to Lebanon because there are real fears of a plan Israel might resort to in the coming months of UNIFIL's mandate, aiming to disrupt its work and push it to early withdrawal from most areas it currently occupies, to make these areas part of a wide zone of influence controlled solely by Israel militarily by air, sea, and land, even if its forces do not penetrate this area, under the pretext of implementing the decision to remove Hezbollah and all its weapons from the south of the Litani before the start of next year."

The sources' greatest fear is that Israel will exploit the departure of international forces to remove the last international witness Lebanon can rely on to voice complaints about violations it suffers, thus monopolizing control over south of the Litani without oversight. This could threaten to turn security control into full actual occupation.

Meanwhile, the legislative session was held yesterday under Speaker Berri's chairmanship with a legal quorum despite the boycott of some blocs and MPs, with the quorum met by the presence of MPs from the "National Moderation" bloc. The council approved a set of draft laws, most notably a loan agreement with the World Bank worth $250 million to restore infrastructure in the south, and a law organizing the judiciary after taking into account the president's remarks on it. In this regard, MP Ali Hussein Khalil said: "These remarks were unanimously agreed upon within the Administration and Justice Committee."