Will Washington Succeed in Reaching a Security Agreement Between Syria and Israel?

Israeli incursions into southern Syria are considered an attempt to impose a new security reality that goes beyond the historically agreed-upon borders, amid American efforts to reach security arrangements that prevent military escalation between the two parties.

The program "Scenarios" reviewed this issue with its guests by raising key questions about the path that relations between Damascus and Tel Aviv will take, and whether diplomatic efforts will lead to security arrangements capable of putting an end to Israeli air raids and ground incursions, or if the region stands on the brink of a wider military escalation that all concerned parties seek to avoid.

The visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—wanted by the International Criminal Court—to the Syrian side of the buffer zone on November 15 highlighted the extent of Israeli ambitions deep within Syrian geography, as Tel Aviv seeks full control beyond the buffer zone.

Israel exploited the security vacuum following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, to strengthen and expand its occupation of Syrian territories, surpassing the limits of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement.

Its forces have positioned themselves along the buffer zone in southwestern Syria, controlling an area exceeding 400 square kilometers, and advancing into Syrian territory sometimes up to 10 kilometers deep.

Logic of Gangs

Syrian writer and political researcher Mudar al-Dabbas believes that Israeli behavior has been clear since the establishment of the occupation state, acting with the logic of gangs despite borrowing state tools.

He pointed out that the 1974 agreement was always a negotiation reference built upon previous talks, but Israel completely destroyed this agreement and placed the area on "fragile sandy ground."

Regarding the humanitarian suffering, international relations researcher Bassam Suleiman noted that the most important question concerns the ability of the Syrian people in the areas where Israel is advancing to endure.

He explained that the real suffering and feeling of humiliation due to Israeli violations have driven some Syrians to resist multiple times, most recently in the town of Beit Jinn, where at least 13 Syrians were killed by occupation forces’ fire.

For his part, academic and expert on Israeli affairs Dr. Muhannad Mustafa emphasized that Israel treats Syrian lands as occupied territory over which it exercises full sovereignty, noting that the Israeli colonial occupation logic is consistent: what it does in the occupied West Bank, it also does in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.

Mustafa said Israel has not yet understood the nature of the new Syrian political regime and is uncertain about its orientations, especially after October 7, when its approach to the entire region changed.

He added that Israel wants to influence Syria’s future and the directions of the Syrian regime, seeing the best way to do so as controlling and managing the population.

Dividing Syria

In the same context, Middle East researcher at the Brookings Institution Dr. Stephen Heydemann explained that President Donald Trump’s administration is aware that the Israeli occupation of Syrian areas conflicts with the president’s goals of supporting Syria, pointing out that what Israel is doing is dividing Syria and creating the possibility of a separatist movement among the Druze in the south.

Heydemann raised a key question about how prepared the Trump administration is to pressure Netanyahu and his government to seriously engage in negotiations leading to a security agreement based on the 1974 disengagement lines, noting that Netanyahu’s upcoming visit to Washington will be decisive in this regard.

On the diplomatic level, Heydemann warned that the United States will find it difficult to prevent Israel from conducting military operations, noting that Washington has said it accepts Israeli moves if it sees a direct security threat from southern Syria. Here lies the problem, as Israel, in his view, interprets this position as broadly as possible.

Syrian political researcher Mudar al-Dabbas highlighted the Israeli Referendum Law issued in 2010 and amended in 2014, which prevents Israel from withdrawing from any occupied land except with the approval of 80 Knesset members, about 70% of its members, which is nearly impossible. He pointed out that Israeli "bullying" is a matter based on law, a Basic Law with a status similar to a constitution.

Al-Dabbas stressed the importance of not relying solely on America and confirmed the necessity of forming a unified Arab stance to confront Israel, noting that the current Israel led by the trio Netanyahu, Ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Bezalel Smotrich is different from the Israel the region knew before.

Meanwhile, Syrian international relations researcher Bassam Suleiman confirmed that what benefits Tel Aviv most is the absence of Syrian national unity and allowing it to invest in some Syrian sects or groups, considering this a vulnerable flank through which Israel can enter at any moment.

Suleiman pointed out that the Syrian state is working on accumulating leverage and pressure, relying on active diplomacy with its Arab depth, Turkey, and even Russia. He clarified that Syria is clear in its negotiations, insisting on the necessity of a specific timetable for Israeli withdrawal from the territories it entered after December 8, 2024, as a main condition for any security agreement.

Regarding possible scenarios, al-Dabbas predicted a security agreement but noted an Israeli desire to delay it as much as possible for reasons related to internal arrangements and Netanyahu’s situation, warning that the delay itself could lead to an explosion preventing the agreement.