Munetaka Murakami could be the next Kyle Schwarber. Will he take a short-term deal to prove it?

Munetaka Murakami's posting window deadline is set for 5 p.m. ET on Monday. Eric Espada / Getty Images

Munetaka Murakami could be the next Kyle Schwarber, but will the Japanese free-agent slugger take a short-term deal to prove it? If so, might teams later regret not going long-term on him now?

Such might be the fascinating stakes just days away from Murakami's posting window deadline, which is set for 5 p.m. ET on Monday.

A long-term contract for Murakami remains possible. At the start of the offseason, The Athletic's Tim Britton projected Murakami to land an eight-year deal worth $158.5 million. Other media outlets predicted similar figures. Murakami is just 25, and many scouts swear by his power.

There's also a possibility, however, that Murakami ends up finding any such long-term offers lacking in terms of dollars. Some of those same scouts who admire Murakami's power also question his defense, contact rates and ability to make necessary adjustments against better pitchers. Therefore, a short-term deal may hold some appeal.

Consider the hypothetical scenario: Murakami takes something like a two-year guarantee, demonstrates 40 home-run type power, plays passable defense at third or first base, leverages an ability to speak English into stardom and re-enters the free-agent market at 28 years old. Then, he might be in line for hundreds of millions of dollars.

Of course, that is merely one favorable script in a wide range of possible outcomes. The posting fee attached to Murakami complicates the idea of a shorter deal. A club might not want to tack on an additional fee to a short-term contract on a young player. More money, more risk.

From the clubs' perspective, though, a long-term deal might present even more of a challenging bet. Generally speaking, teams are more comfortable developing and predicting performances for Japanese pitchers than position players. Murakami is not a perfect fit for the models clubs use and depend on to make decisions in free agency.

A few years ago, Schwarber could relate.

After the 2020 season, the Chicago Cubs non-tendered Schwarber. He then parlayed a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals (and a subsequent trade to the Boston Red Sox) into a four-year, $79 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies in March 2022. Any club that fretted over Schwarber's lack of a position and penchant for striking out has surely harbored regrets over the last few years.

Since 2022, he has averaged 46.8 home runs and a .856 OPS per season.

Murakami-to-Schwarber is not an apples-to-apples comparison. They play in different leagues, in different parts of the world. But the concept of Murakami potentially following Schwarber's path strikes some evaluators as at least a valid thought.

"I absolutely think it is and makes a lot of sense because of the tools, physical attributes they both have -- with defense dings (and) high K rates," said one National League executive who scouted Murakami in person. "The tricky part I would add is that a guy like Schwarber was renowned since he was in college for his makeup and work ethic.

"I don't think anyone can say Murakami's makeup isn't good, but just the difficulty of getting to know the players in-depth, as well as the culture change, makes it a lot riskier."

Murakami, who is working out in California as he awaits a deal, holds elite exit velocity and bat speed, major elements in his appeal to clubs. His average exit velocity last season in Nippon Professional Baseball checked in at 96.5 mph. Meanwhile in MLB, Schwarber's average exit velocity was 94.3 mph.

Some of Murakami's other NPB numbers, such as chase rate (24 percent), walk rate (14 percent) and strikeout rate (29 percent), are comparable to Schwarber's MLB numbers (21.5 percent chase rate, 15 percent walk rate, 27 percent strikeout rate). Again, different experience level, different level of competition.

The issue with Murakami's numbers is the fear they will worsen against better pitchers. The profile, though, contains some similarities.

Naturally, there are other comparable profiles. The list of players with high maximum exit velocities and poor contact against pitches in the zone includes players such as Christopher Morel, who recently agreed to a one-year deal with the Miami Marlins, and Joey Gallo, who is now attempting to pitch.

The key for Murakami, of course, will be adjusting to major-league pitching.

In Japan, he struggled against pitches timed at 95 mph or higher. In MLB, he will see more of that kind of heat. Murakami will need to make more contact on pitches in the strike zone, too. (His 23.4 percent zone whiff rate in Japan was better than Shohei Ohtani's 26.9 percent mark, and Ohtani was a few years younger.)

Murakami is young and talented -- who's to say what his ceiling might be? But that's what is still so tricky ahead of Monday's deadline. Teams might still be deciding whether it's best to go short or long on a contract. Murakami might be wondering the same thing.