The Fall of Geopolitics... Trump Shakes the Cold War

American President Donald Trump (AP)

One of the things that makes reading and rereading history interesting is the ability to draw conclusions that are not necessarily mainstream. For this reason, despite fundamental perceptions, not all pivotal historical moments are universally agreed upon.

Some historians, for example, merge the two world wars into one, the "Second Thirty Years' War." Others believe that the fundamental shift in the second half of the twentieth century did not crystallize after the fall of the Soviet Union, but rather in the late 1970s, with the rise of conservatives on both sides of the Atlantic and the emergence of China and the Iranian Revolution. According to these views, the Cold War continued beyond the fall of the Soviet Union, specifically until the outbreak of the Ukraine war.

For a somewhat different reason, geopolitical analyst George Friedman recently joined this group of thinkers. From the perspective of the strong relationship between Atlantic allies that characterized an important aspect of the 1945-1991 era, Friedman pointed out on Monday that Russia's invasion of Ukraine ended the Cold War. According to his analysis in "Geopolitical Futures," the US-European relationship was ideological in terms of confronting communism, and strategic as well, since the possibility of Soviet expansion westward posed a threat to America's freedom in the Atlantic. In this sense, the Cold War was shattered in Ukraine because Russia failed in its invasion, making the possibility of it becoming a great power threatening the United States impossible.

However, this analysis overlooks other dimensions of current American policy. Was President Donald Trump really considering the extent of Russia's potential control over Western European ports, and when he found it unlikely, did he withdraw support for Ukraine and Europe? It requires a significant leap of faith to accept this hypothesis.

Trump's worldview is based on dividing the world among several powers, or rather among several leaders or "strongmen" who make quick deals among themselves. As Corey Shick from the American Project Institute wrote ten days ago in Foreign Policy, the only war the White House is preparing to fight is the cultural war. Indeed, many MAGA Republicans in Washington see Russia as an objective ally in the cultural war against the globalized "elites."

One of the foundations of the Cold War may soon be buried, but not for strategic reasons. Washington is distancing itself from Europe and moving closer to Moscow due to cultural convergence between the two sides, despite the ambiguity and exaggeration in describing this "convergence." Even Trump's thinking about China tends to prioritize the economic level rather than the geopolitical. From this perspective, for example, his recent decision to allow Nvidia to sell advanced chips (H-200) to China still sparks internal controversy.

The Decline of Geopolitics

To illustrate the diminishing role of the geopolitical criterion in the new American equation, the question can be posed differently: Would a Democratic administration, had it won the last elections, have abandoned Europe simply because Russia is incapable of posing a regional threat to the United States? The most likely answer is no. Despite Russia's strategic reality remaining as it is, a Democratic administration would still see Europe as a cultural ally, unlike Russia.

Geopolitics is extremely important in international relations, but it does not summarize the whole picture, nor even the largest part of it in the United States. Considering this reality, the fate of researching the outcomes of the "Cold War" may be postponed until after 2028, if Ukraine and Europe hold firm.