When the Butterfly Flaps Its Wings from Nemanjina

In recent weeks, Serbia has become a testing ground for the "butterfly effect," a model used to explain cause-and-effect relationships in chaos theory. This is when a butterfly flaps its wings in Mongolia and somewhere on the other side of the planet it causes a hurricane that uproots trees.

The butterfly effect in Serbia can be observed daily—whenever Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić opens his mouth, someone who had been quietly enjoying the fruits of their guilty conscience feels a tightening in their chest. Or, when the butterfly flaps its wings in the office at Nemanjina 11, someone ends up behind bars.

So far, the flap of the butterfly's wings has mostly swept behind bars people close to the former government, although some of them have been linked to Vučić's coalition partners from the Socialist Party of Serbia, who were also part of the previous government.

For many, breakfast turned sour with the first morning news, especially when familiar names appeared in the reports.

Last week, former Minister of Agriculture Saša Dragin and the owner of the consulting firm CES Mekon, Zvonimir Nikezić, along with seven associates, were imprisoned in connection with lucrative fertilizer deals in Bulgaria.

It is suspected that the "Bulgarians" in the Azotara affair caused damage to the state budget exceeding four and a half million euros.

Nikezić was also questioned in September during the investigation of the major corruption scandal involving Agrobanka, where he was once a member of the Board of Directors. Many predicted back then that he was on a "trip to Kinshasa." Since the investigation in that case is still ongoing, he might still end up on that "safari."

A series of cause-and-effect links led to Nikezić's arrest, which caused discomfort for former Prime Minister Mirko Cvetković.

He himself said he was shaken and that Nikezić was not a business partner but a friend. In the realm of the butterfly effect, which teaches us that even the smallest decisions can have far-reaching consequences, the former prime minister today would not be worried if he had chosen his company more wisely.

The Cvetković-Nikezić Connection

Cvetković was the executive director of Nikezić's CES Mekon, while simultaneously serving as director of the Privatization Agency, which led the Anti-Corruption Council to accuse him of a conflict of interest.

This quiet man with a gray beard resembling Santa Claus did not care about such accusations. And why would he, when from January 2002 to January 2010, the state paid CES Mekon 535.8 million dinars (approximately five million euros) for consulting services.

Most of that amount, even a third, was earned by CES Mekon while Cvetković was head of the Agency. In other words, this reserved clarinetist was giving himself contracts.

In Serbia, consultants take the money, grease the right palms, and with the help of their cadres, wait for new jobs within institutions.

In the year and three months (from December 26, 2002, to April 7, 2004) that Cvetković led the Privatization Agency, he became a record holder for the number of canceled privatizations—168 in total.

Five out of ten privatizations where CES Mekon advised the state were either annulled, suspicious, or ended with company closures.

According to an analysis by the Anti-Corruption Council, the privatizations of the companies Seme and Belgrade Film, in which CES Mekon advised the state, were marked as suspicious. Suspicious privatizations are the focus of working groups within the anti-corruption team coordinated by Vučić as the Secretary General of the National Security Council and head of the Bureau for Coordination of Security Services.

Worldwide, consultants are paid only when they successfully complete a job and must compensate for any damage caused. In Serbia, consultants take the money, grease the right palms, and with the help of their cadres, wait for new jobs within institutions.

The Future Lies with the Younger Generation

At the time CES Mekon was working on numerous privatizations, some of which were marked as suspicious, Cvetković's deputy at the Privatization Agency was Zvonimir's son, Dušan Nikezić, also a CES Mekon cadre.

Later, this young man became an advisor to Prime Minister Cvetković, and after a government reshuffle, the prime minister also took over the Ministry of Finance, where Dušan Nikezić served as state secretary. While advising the prime minister, this multi-talented economist held several other positions.

Another Nikezić son, Pavle, is the director of the Yugoslav Authors' Agency, whose Board of Directors includes Cvetković's son Aleksandar. According to data obtained by the Center for Investigative Journalism of the Independent Journalists' Association of Serbia, Nikezić owns nearly 60 percent of the JAA.

Cvetković himself had approximately 5.6 percent ownership in this agency, but after public pressure and from the Anti-Corruption Agency, he transferred management rights to unrelated persons.

Arrests among the public provoke inexplicable satisfaction, accompanied by exalted chants of support: "Arrest them, people's militia," all accompanied by the howling of empty stomachs.

The butterfly effect teaches us that small, seemingly insignificant things can lead to catastrophic consequences. When a Serbian tycoon comes under the judiciary's scrutiny, thousands of workers suffer headaches or lose their jobs.

For us in Serbia, it is irrelevant that someone in Croatia one morning decided to investigate the affairs of former Prime Minister Ivo Sanader, but that decision may have led to a series of arrests in Serbia, because, in the absence of a big fish, a bunch of "Sanader's men" began to be detained.

These arrests then provoke inexplicable satisfaction among the people, with exalted chants of support: "Arrest them, people's militia," all accompanied by the howling of empty stomachs.

How far can such connections as in the case of Cvetković and Nikezić lead? Only Aleksandar Vučić knows, to whom someone gave a plastic gun and a police badge over 30 years ago. That was actually when it all began.